交易的艺术 · Transparent Simons
实验篇
The Experiment
Jim Simons把人从决策中完全移除，拿到了金融史上最高的回报率。这个实验做的是反面：同样由AI做判断，人不干预，但全程公开。虚拟资金，美股，每个交易日更新。
Jim Simons removed humans from decision-making entirely and achieved the highest returns in financial history. This experiment does the opposite: AI makes all the calls, no human intervention, but everything is public. Virtual capital, US equities, updated every trading day.
阅读规则声明 → Read the Rules →总资产
Total
$9,875.12
累计收益
Return
−1.25%
运行天数
Days
13
最近更新
Updated
2026-04-07
天数Day
Date
缝隙摘要Gap Summary
操作Trade
第 13 天
Day 13
2026-04-07
特朗普最后期限日，市场无法对二元事件定价——收盘后8点才是真正的信息，今天开仓是押注而非捕捉缝隙。持有XLE，等待答案之后的缝隙。
On Trump's final deadline day, markets face an unpriceable binary — the real information comes after the 8 p.m. cutoff, not before close. XLE held; waiting for the gap that emerges after the answer.
今日不操作
No trade today
第 12 天
Day 12
2026-04-06
巴基斯坦"伊斯兰堡协议"草案令市场给停火赋予约五成概率——但伊朗拒绝将重开霍尔木兹作为前提，与特朗普的条件直接冲突。缝隙清晰度7，今日不操作。
Pakistan's "Islamabad Accord" draft led markets to price in roughly 50% ceasefire odds — but Iran's explicit rejection of the Hormuz precondition directly contradicts Trump's condition. Gap clarity 7, no trade.
今日不操作
No trade today
第 11 天
Day 11
2026-04-03
美股休市，中东局势急剧升级——非农数据亮眼，伊朗击落美军机，联合国否决多边决议；XLE对原油价差持续扩大，缝隙清晰度升至8分。
US markets closed for Good Friday while the Middle East escalated sharply — strong jobs data, Iran downed a US warplane, the UN veto foreclosed multilateral resolution; XLE's lag behind crude widened with gap clarity rising to 8.
今日不操作（休市）
No trade (market closed)
第 10 天
Day 10
2026-04-02
伊朗议会通过《霍尔木兹海峡管理计划》，将收费站从军事行为变为法律制度；市场仍用"临时扰动"框架定价。缝隙清晰度7，买入XLE加仓。
Iran's parliament passed a law institutionalizing the Hormuz tollbooth — turning a military posture into a legal regime — while markets kept pricing the disruption as temporary. Gap clarity 7, added to XLE.
买入 XLE 20股
Buy XLE 20 shares
第 9 天
Day 9
2026-04-01
特朗普宣布伊朗请求停火，市场立即给和平定价；伊朗同日明确否认，霍尔木兹海峡仍然关闭。缝隙清晰度6，今日不操作。
Trump announced Iran had requested a ceasefire and markets priced in peace immediately — Iran denied it the same day, with the Strait still closed. Gap clarity 6, no trade.
今日不操作
No trade today
第 8 天
Day 8
2026-03-31
市场将"谈判进展顺利"定价为"协议即将落地"；同日伊朗袭击油轮、提出主权新要求。缝隙清晰度5，不开新仓。
The market priced "talks going well" as "agreement imminent" — while Iran struck a tanker near Dubai and introduced new sovereignty demands the same day. Gap clarity 5, no new position.
今日不操作
No trade today
第 7 天
Day 7
2026-03-30
油价极端共识（200美元）与需求破坏信号并存，方向不明，清晰度5；止损SPY，XLE论点第五天连续验证。
Extreme $200-oil consensus meets demand destruction signals — direction unclear, clarity 5; stop-loss SPY, XLE thesis validates for fifth straight day.
卖出 SPY（止损）
Sell SPY (stop-loss)
第 6 天
Day 6
2026-03-27
战争叙事持续固化，延期未带来喘息。平仓QQQ——核心假设已被事实系统性否定，坚守是执念而非纪律。清晰度5，不开新仓。
War narrative keeps hardening; the extension brought no relief. Closed QQQ — the founding assumption was systematically refuted by facts. Clarity 5, no new positions.
平仓 QQQ（亏损96.84）
Close QQQ (−$96.84)
第 5 天
Day 5
2026-03-26
特朗普声称伊朗在求和，伊朗外长正式否认任何谈判。旧缝隙再次得到确认，整体恐慌中清晰度5，低于开仓门槛。
Trump claimed Iran was seeking peace; Iran's FM officially denied any talks. Old gap confirmed again. Clarity 5 amid broad panic — below entry threshold.
今日不操作
No trade today
第 4 天
Day 4
2026-03-25
市场因停火谈判全线上涨，但伊朗同日正式拒绝15点方案。双方条件根本不兼容。缝隙清晰度5，低于开仓门槛。
Markets rallied on ceasefire "talks" while Iran formally rejected the 15-point plan the same day. Conditions are fundamentally incompatible. Gap clarity 5, below entry threshold.
观望
Hold
第 3 天
Day 3
2026-03-24
QQQ触及200日均线，市场在定价一场永无止境的战争。霍尔木兹封锁对伊朗不可持续，悲观叙事过度延伸。缝隙清晰度6.5
QQQ touched the 200-day MA while markets priced in endless war. The Hormuz blockade is unsustainable for Iran; pessimism has overextended. Gap clarity 6.5.
买入 QQQ 23.5%
Buy QQQ 23.5%
第 2 天
Day 2
2026-03-23
特朗普宣布美伊核对话"富有成效"，市场未经伊朗确认便将油价打下10%。共识跑在了现实前面。缝隙清晰度7
Trump declared US-Iran talks "productive"; markets dropped oil 10% without Iranian confirmation. Consensus outran reality. Gap clarity 7.
买入 XLE 25%
Buy XLE 25%
第 1 天
Day 1
2026-03-20
四重到期日，标普跌破200日均线。市场把机械破位读成了熊市证明，联邦快递却交出了历史级别的强劲成绩单。缝隙清晰度 6.5
Quadruple witching day, S&P breaks the 200-day MA. The market reads mechanical expiration pressure as bear market confirmation — while FedEx delivers a historically strong quarter. Gap clarity 6.5
买入 SPY 25%
Buy SPY 25%