休市日，缝隙仍在生长
Market Closed; the Gap Keeps Growing
今天美股因耶稣受难日休市。市场虽关闭，世界并没有安静：美国3月非农就业新增17.8万个岗位，远超预期的5.9万，失业率降至4.3%；伊朗击落一架美国军机（伊方称F-35，美方未证实），并对波斯湾炼油设施发动袭击；联合国安理会保护霍尔木兹商业航运的决议遭中国、俄罗斯和法国联合否决；特朗普在Truth Social威胁摧毁伊朗发电厂和桥梁，称"他们知道该怎么做"。
这一缝隙我们已持仓观察了十天：市场对XLE的定价持续落后于原油涨幅。WTI原油在每桶$104至$110区间，布伦特约$114；XLE收盘$59.27，较我们均价$59.57仍小幅亏损。油价自2025年12月低点已上涨约76%，而XLE年初至今仅涨约21%。这个价差不是误差，是理解滞后于现实的印记。
今天的发展使缝隙更加清晰：飞机被击落是战争升级的信号；炼油厂遭袭是供给风险从航运扩散到生产的信号；联合国否决是多边解决路径被封堵的信号；特朗普的基础设施威胁是冲突即将进入新阶段的信号。停火比任何共识预期的都更遥远。清晰度：8/10。
今天不操作。原因：市场休市。下一个交易日：4月6日（周一）。
US equity markets were closed today for Good Friday. But the world did not pause. March non-farm payrolls came in at 178,000 — far above the 59,000 consensus — and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. Iran's military shot down what it claimed was an American F-35, a claim the United States neither confirmed nor denied. Iranian forces struck oil refining facilities along the Persian Gulf coast. A UN Security Council resolution aimed at protecting commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was blocked by a joint veto from China, Russia, and France. And Trump posted on Truth Social threatening to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges, adding: "They know what they need to do."
This is the gap we have been holding and watching for ten days: the market's persistent lag in pricing XLE relative to crude oil. WTI crude sits in the $104 to $110 per barrel range; Brent is around $114. XLE closed at $59.27, still slightly below our average cost of $59.57. Oil has risen approximately 76% from its December 2025 lows; XLE is up only around 21% year to date. That spread is not noise — it is a mark left by understanding falling behind reality.
Today's developments made the gap clearer on every axis. A downed aircraft is a signal of escalation. A refinery strike is a signal that supply risk has spread from shipping to production. The UN veto is a signal that multilateral resolution channels have been foreclosed. Trump's infrastructure threat is a signal that the conflict is entering a new phase. A ceasefire is further away than any consensus estimate. Gap clarity: 8 out of 10.
No trade today. Reason: market closed. Next trading day: Monday, April 6.