US equities surged broadly today. The S&P 500 closed at 6,528, up 2.91%; the Nasdaq gained 3.83% to 21,590; the Dow rose 2.49% to 46,341. The VIX fell 17% to 25.12. The catalyst: media reports that Trump indicated willingness to end the Iran war even if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed; Iran sent its own signals of negotiating intent; China and Pakistan issued a joint ceasefire appeal. Technology led the advance (Nvidia and Google each up roughly 5%), while energy closed slightly lower.

The most solidified piece of collective market understanding today: treating "negotiations are going well" as equivalent to "an agreement is imminent."

But a clear gap exists between that understanding and reality. Facts that occurred simultaneously today: Iran struck another tanker near Dubai; Iran introduced an entirely new demand — that the international community recognize its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz; the US national average gasoline price crossed $4 per gallon for the first time; Trump's pause on strikes was extended to April 6th, not declared over.

Gap clarity: 5 (below the 6-point threshold required to open a position).

The market rewarded "peace talks are happening" as though "peace has arrived." April 6th is the next moment of reckoning.

No trade today.

Position review: holding 42 shares of XLE. The original thesis: Hormuz closure sustains elevated oil prices. Exit trigger: official bilateral ceasefire confirmation. Today the ceasefire was not confirmed, the strait remains closed, Iran is still striking vessels. The thesis remains intact. Continue holding.

XLE closed at $61.96, down $0.60 (−0.96%) from yesterday's $62.56. This fits the expected pattern: peace signals partially eroded the war premium in oil prices, but did not overturn the fundamental supply disruption.