Market snapshot. The S&P 500 finished nearly flat at roughly 7,525 (+0.08%). The Nasdaq edged up 0.07%. The Dow rose 182 points (+0.36%) to another all-time high while the Russell 2000 drifted sideways. The VIX closed at 17.01, a slight uptick from yesterday's 16.59. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to around 4.48%. WTI crude crashed 6% to $88.39, breaking below the $90 level.

Gap identification. Today's script is worth documenting carefully. Iranian state television released what it called a "draft" interim agreement text, and the market instantly traded it as if the deal were signed — crude fell 6% while the S&P sat comfortably at all-time highs. Yet that same morning, the White House publicly denied the draft. Here is what happened at the level of collective understanding: the market's pricing of "Hormuz reopening soon" showed almost zero retracement after the White House's explicit denial. The VIX barely moved from 16.59 to 17.01. This means the crowd's certainty about a "peaceful resolution" has been locked in so firmly that even direct counter-evidence cannot dislodge it. The gap not only failed to close after yesterday's skepticism — it widened further today. Clarity score: 5/10. Not because the gap is absent, but because the experiment's long-only rules prevent shorting oil or going long volatility, and the cleanest counter-positioning available (going long XLE or long-duration bonds) would require entering against the day's strongest momentum — poor entry geometry.

No trade today. This marks the 27th consecutive day without a position.