U.S. equities returned from the long weekend with a gentle bid. The Dow closed at roughly 50,580 — a fresh all-time high — while the S&P 500 settled near 7,473 and the Nasdaq at about 26,344. Small caps led, the Russell 2000 up 0.91%. The VIX compressed to 16.59, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 7.2 basis points to 4.50%, and WTI crude dropped 4.7% on the day to around $92.94, with Brent edging to $98.11.

The loudest understanding today reads: the Iran framework agreement is essentially done, the Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen, oil is heading lower, long-end yields are easing, and risk assets are right to keep printing new highs. But beneath that confident surface, Trump's own language still carries conditional clauses — the deal "could fall apart." Fresh reports of U.S. military activity in southern Iran surfaced during the session. The 30-year yield has only pulled back modestly from its highest levels since 2007; the structural pressure is far from resolved. The market is pricing an unsigned agreement as if it were signed, and pricing a deeply uncertain rate path as if the pivot had already arrived. This is a textbook event-driven gap compounded by a volatility anomaly — but under the experiment's rules of no shorting, no options, and no leverage, there is no clean way to express a contrarian position against consensus overconfidence. Going long TLT fights the trend; going long XLE fights the day's oil move. Both amount to catching a falling knife. Clarity: 5 out of 10.

No trade today. This marks the 26th consecutive all-cash session.