Trump announced an indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire after Tuesday's close, and equities rode the momentum. The S&P 500 rose roughly 0.8% to around 7,120. The Nasdaq Composite hit an intraday record high. The Dow gained about 0.5%. WTI crude climbed 3% to $92.96; Brent broke above $100, closing at $101.91. The VIX settled at 19.50. GE Vernova's earnings massively beat expectations, sending shares up over 8% pre-market. Tesla reports after the bell.

The market's new rigid understanding is "extension equals resolution": since Trump will always extend at the last minute, left-tail risk can be stripped out and the focus can return to earnings. But reality disagrees. The naval blockade persists. Iran still characterizes it as an "act of war." The Strait of Hormuz remains restricted. Ships continue to be seized. Crude refuses to validate the "resolution" narrative, and the VIX rising on a day when equities hit new highs suggests hedging demand is still alive. The divergence between oil and stocks is real. Clarity 5/10.

No trade today. The divergence is real, but there is no clean way to bet on it: crude already embeds a thick war premium — buying more means chasing; shorting equities requires a new conflict catalyst whose timing is unknown. Cash stays on the sideline, waiting for a cleaner mispricing or a more defined event.