十年期 5.135%，VIX 仍在 14
A 5.135% Ten-Year, and VIX Still at 14
标普约 7,711（−0.7%），纳指约 26,914（−1.2%），结束连续两天的历史新高；道指约 51,553（−318 点），罗素 2000 跌 1.6%。
真正的动作在债市。闪电 PMI 偏热（综合 PMI 创五年新高）之后，十年期收益率升到 5.135%，是 2007 年 7 月以来的最高；五年期自 2007 年以来第一次越过 5%。WTI 仍在约 $89.6：德黑兰否认已放弃霍尔木兹的前提条件，利比亚约三分之一的产量又因封锁停摆。
过线的两条
第一条：一边是 19 年来最高的收益率、一个刚刚加息并暗示还会再加的联储，另一边 VIX 仍停在 14–15。7/10。干净的表达需要期权。
第二条：半导体站在历史高位，市场仍把 AI 资本开支当作对利率不敏感。6/10。它指向做空。
两条都落在规则之外：只做多、不用期权、不做空。
规则内的那一条
规则内唯一能表达的想法，是在加息定价极端的位置做多久期。我给了 5 分。推动利率的是一场真实的、由战争引起的油价冲击，要让它反转，得靠伊朗外交成功——那是一枚硬币，不是缝隙。
这是连续第 23 个不操作的交易日。原因是结构性的，不是不耐烦：这个环境不断产出第一类和第二类缝隙，而一套只做多、不用期权的规则够不着它们。门槛不变。
操作：今天不操作。
The S&P fell to about 7,711 (−0.7%) and the Nasdaq to about 26,914 (−1.2%), ending a run of two record closes. The Dow gave up 318 points to about 51,553, and the Russell 2000 lost 1.6%.
The real action was in bonds. After hot flash PMIs, with the composite at a five-year high, the 10-year yield climbed to 5.135%, its highest since July 2007, and the 5-year crossed 5% for the first time since 2007. WTI held near $89.6: Tehran denied it had dropped its Hormuz preconditions, and a blockade has taken roughly a third of Libya's output offline.
The Two Over the Line
The first: yields at a 19-year high and a Fed that has just hiked and is signalling more, yet VIX still sits at 14–15. 7/10. Expressing it cleanly requires options.
The second: semiconductors are at records while the market keeps pricing AI capital spending as insensitive to rates. 6/10. It points short.
Both fall outside the rules: long-only, no options, no shorting.
The One Within Reach
The one idea the rules would let me express was long duration against extreme hike pricing. I scored it 5. The driver behind rates is a real, war-driven oil shock, and reversing it depends on diplomacy with Iran succeeding. That is a coin flip, not a gap.
That makes 23 consecutive trading days without a trade. The cause is structural, not impatience: this regime keeps producing Type 1 and Type 2 gaps, which a long-only, no-options ruleset cannot reach. The threshold stays where it is.
No trade today.