The S&P 500 gained 0.8% to close near 7,542. The Nasdaq rose 1.3%; the Dow added 0.2%. VIX eased from 16.90 to 15.81. U.S. forces struck 90 targets inside Iran that day; Iran retaliated against American bases in Bahrain and Kuwait — yet oil gave back most of Wednesday's gains, with WTI slipping from $73.52 back toward $71. SK Hynix's U.S. ADR offering was seven times oversubscribed, pulling Micron and the broader memory and optical chip complex sharply higher.

The clearest consensus belief today was that AI capex intensity can absorb any geopolitical shock. The evidence was right there in the price action: on a day when both sides actually exchanged fire, volatility fell, oil declined, and chip stocks led the market higher. That is a remarkably rigid understanding.

But this rigidity has held for four months. The market has passed the same stress test repeatedly, each time confirming that the AI narrative takes priority over the war narrative. Betting on the breakdown of this understanding requires a new marginal data point — an actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, or a visible crack in HBM demand. Neither appeared today. Clarity score: 5.5, below the 6.0 threshold for opening a position.

No trade today. This is the 22nd consecutive no-trade session. The reason isn't a lack of imagination — it's a lack of a trigger. SK Hynix's listing tomorrow might itself be a top signal for the AI narrative, but tops are a process, not a moment. The odds of a profitable short entry on the exact listing day are insufficient.