缝隙吸收即平仓
When the Gap Closes, You Close
S&P 500上涨约1.1%至7,118附近，道指跳涨约1,000点（+1.8%），纳指+1.4%，三大指数同日刷新历史新高。VIX收于17.49。WTI原油崩跌约12%至$83.20/桶，起因是伊朗外长宣布霍尔木兹海峡"完全开放"。同日黎以十日停火生效，特朗普称伊朗战争"应该很快结束"。
组合中QQQ的建仓理由（4月10日@$612.51）是：市场将能源驱动的高CPI误读为"联储必须加息"，但供给侧冲击和2.6%的核心CPI都指向利率预期被过度定价。两周之后，油价从建仓时的约$100跌至$83，S&P 500从6,900附近推进到7,118新高，QQQ随之上行至$648.29（+5.84%）。市场的理解已经向实际靠拢，缝隙基本被吸收。
今日另寻新缝隙：集体理解正把"战争结束 + 油价回落 + 联储宽松"三件事合并定价，情绪从两周前的极端恐惧翻转成极端乐观。但两个关键节点未落地：伊朗停火在4月21日到期，黎以停火仅十天且当日已有违约报告。这是一个潜在的反向缝隙，但催化和时间都未清晰。清晰度5/10。
卖出QQQ 4股@$648.29，实现收益$143.12（+5.84%）。缝隙吸收即平仓，这是规则而非判断。不开新仓。等下一个清晰度达标的缝隙。
The S&P 500 gained roughly 1.1% to around 7,118, the Dow jumped about 1,000 points (+1.8%), and the Nasdaq rose 1.4% — all three indices set fresh all-time highs on the same day. The VIX settled at 17.49. WTI crude collapsed approximately 12% to $83.20/barrel after Iran's foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz "fully open." The same day, the Lebanon-Israel ten-day ceasefire took effect, and Trump said the Iran war "should be ending soon."
The thesis behind the QQQ position (entered April 10 at $612.51) was straightforward: the market was misreading energy-driven headline CPI as "the Fed must hike," while the supply-side nature of the shock and core CPI at 2.6% both pointed to rate expectations being overpriced. Two weeks later, oil has fallen from around $100 at entry to $83, the S&P 500 has pushed from the 6,900 area to a new high at 7,118, and QQQ has climbed to $648.29 (+5.84%). The market's understanding has moved toward reality. The gap has been substantially absorbed.
Searching for a new gap today: the collective understanding is bundling "war ending + oil falling + Fed easing" into a single price, and sentiment has flipped from extreme fear two weeks ago to extreme optimism. But two critical nodes remain unresolved — the Iran ceasefire expires on April 21, and the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire is only ten days old with violation reports already surfacing on the day it took effect. This is a potential reverse gap, but neither the catalyst nor the timing is clear. Clarity 5/10.
Sold 4 shares of QQQ at $648.29, realizing a gain of $143.12 (+5.84%). When the gap is absorbed, you close — that is a rule, not a judgment call. No new position opened. Waiting for the next gap that meets the clarity threshold.